Standard Chartered Bank: Trump's victory will lead to a huge Bitcoin boom

Important impact of the election

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is expected to hit new highs by the end of the year regardless of who wins the November U.S. election, Standard Chartered Bank (STAN) said in a report resuming its coverage of the sector on Thursday.

The bank said the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is important for digital assets, but not as important as when Biden was the Democratic candidate and below market expectations.

The report said that no matter who wins the election, Bitcoin is expected to hit an all-time high by the end of the year. If Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin may explode to about $125,000, and if Kamala Harris wins, the price of Bitcoin may reach about $75,000.

“Regulatory progress — particularly the repeal of SAB 121, which imposed strict accounting rules on banks’ digital asset holdings — will continue through 2025 regardless of who occupies the White House,” wrote Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank. He added that progress would take longer under a Harris presidency.

The report noted that the renewed steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve also "created positive momentum" for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin may initially sell off if Harris wins, but Kendrick expects any dips to be bought as investors recognize that regulatory progress will still be made (albeit at a slower pace) and that other positive catalysts will take hold.

Trump is more crypto-friendly

Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to hit new highs later this year if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election in November, with the cryptocurrency potentially reaching $90,000 by the fourth quarter, brokerage Bernstein said in a research note on Monday.

The report said that if Kamala Harris wins the election, the largest cryptocurrency by market value is expected to break through its current bottom of around $60,000.

The broker noted that Trump has been vocal about making the U.S. the “Bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world” and has mentioned digital assets in every one of his policy speeches.

In a speech at the Bitcoin Nashville conference in July, Trump called for the United States to become a Bitcoin mining powerhouse, appoint a cryptocurrency-friendly SEC chairman, and establish a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Presidential Cryptocurrency Advisory Committee.

On the contrary, the report noted that cryptocurrency was not mentioned in any of Harris’ speeches.

Bernstein said that over the past three years, the cryptocurrency market has faced two major headwinds, namely macro headwinds and regulatory headwinds.

“After the regulatory cleanup of the past three years, proactive crypto regulation could spur innovation again and bring users back to financial products on the blockchain,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote.

“The election outcome remains difficult to predict, but if you’re long crypto here, you’re likely to be in a Trump trade,” the report added.

According to previous articles, Trump's lead in the forecast has been overtaken by Harris since incumbent President Biden withdrew from this year's election.

Recently, the campaign team of Democratic candidate Harris said that in more than a month since Harris began her presidential campaign, it has raised a total of 540 million US dollars, including 82 million US dollars during the Democratic National Convention.

Harris' campaign manager believes this shows the Democratic Party's enthusiasm for her candidacy. According to the Financial Times, Harris raised $204 million in July, four times more than Trump. As of the end of July, Harris' campaign team had $220 million in cash, while Trump's campaign team had $151 million in cash.

According to public reports, Trump has attended far fewer campaign rallies so far than in 2016 and 2020, especially after the shooting.

Trump's donors and friends have questioned some of the election decisions, worrying that Trump is "disorganized" and lacks a campaign platform and a strong campaign operation. However, Trump's campaign team said they are ready for the final sprint in November.