A-share bull market, where is the crypto market heading?

During the seven days of the National Day holiday, many KOLs in the Chinese crypto community began to publicly announce a new operation:

Exit the crypto ecosystem and transfer large amounts of funds to A-shares.

Seeing this operation, I still want to remind our readers:

If you are very confident that you are a genius in operations and can accurately grasp the future trends of the crypto ecosystem and A-shares, then you can imitate this operation - perfectly utilizing the rhythm of different investment markets to make huge profits. Otherwise, I suggest you act with caution.

I believe that in the crypto ecosystem, many readers, especially young readers, have spent much more time experiencing the ups and downs and experiences in the crypto ecosystem than in A-shares, and are much more familiar with and knowledgeable about the crypto ecosystem than in A-shares.

Giving up the market you are familiar with and rushing into an unfamiliar territory just because another market you are not familiar with has experienced drastic fluctuations, is like a sheep walking into a tiger's mouth.

Many of these KOLs usually show complete disdain for A-shares, but this 180-degree turnaround is not surprising in my opinion, because there are even more outrageous ones than them - those internationally renowned institutional investors.

Today I will only talk about the most famous one that everyone is familiar with: BlackRock Capital.

Its CEO Larry Fink mentioned in an interview earlier (roughly): "When I talk to Chinese executives, there is a fear that we (A shares) have not yet reached the bottom. Will this be the bottom for China?"

The above statement reveals BlackRock's earlier deep concerns about A-shares. Therefore, we all know BlackRock's final operation in A-shares - tearfully liquidating positions and withdrawing from A-shares.

When this operation was exposed, I remember that major domestic media made a famous joke about BlackRock's investment in A-shares: "You can't buy it all, you can't buy it all at all."

However, on September 24, after the central government introduced a series of stimulus measures and a series of overseas capital became "restless" in the face of the rise in A-shares, BlackRock actually began to pay attention to Chinese stocks again - raising them from "neutral" to "overweight".

This transformation is extremely rapid and agile for such a large organization.

Who says big companies react slowly? I think BlackRock’s response is extremely fast, and its speed and agility are no less than that of a startup.

In my article on September 26, I wrote the following:

“…Among these people, there are two kinds of opinions on the future market:

The first category: A-shares have completely bottomed out, and the stock market will move forward in waves from now on.

The second category: I am afraid there will be a more miserable final drop, which is likely to fall below the previous low, and most people who still have hope will be in tears and heartbroken. Only after this final drop is completed, will A-shares usher in a vigorous bull market.

What I am curious about now is: if the above-mentioned "second type" situation occurs, and this final tragic drop really comes, how will BlackRock change its rating of Chinese stocks at that time?

Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger often mention Wall Street institutions like BlackRock in their shareholder Q&A sessions, and their tone is quite disdainful.

If you have watched the American movie "The Wolf of Wall Street", you will be able to deeply understand this kind of "disdain".

In the movie, although the Wolf of Wall Street works on Wall Street, his ability to make money does not rely on investment philosophy, nor on values ​​and ways of thinking, but on sales methods.

His key skill is to convince his clients that the investment products he sells have "potential" and can "appreciate in value." Whether those investment products really have "potential" and can "appreciate in value" is not his concern. Maybe they really have the potential to appreciate in value, or maybe they are simply worthless.

In short, when he wants to sell his investment products, he has a lot of "reasons" and a lot of "data" to make customers believe that the investment products really have a bright future.

There are countless such institutions on Wall Street.

Let’s look back at the BlackRock case.

In Larry Fink's statement, he repeatedly mentioned the concept of "bottom fishing". Just in this respect, he is completely on a different level from Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger in terms of investment.

Because bottom fishing is basically a matter of luck.

Anyone who operates with the idea of ​​"bottom-fishing" is not investing but speculation, and speculation is only temporary and unsustainable.

Let’s talk about the A-share stocks that BlackRock previously bought.

If it was a stock of a very good company, I think the price would not be overvalued in the macro environment at that time. For a stock that is not overvalued but has great value, the lower its price is, the better time to buy it. But BlackRock's operation clearly proves that it does not understand the value of the company.

If it was a bad company, purely for the purpose of raising money and looking for an opportunity to sell the company, but BlackRock bought such a company, it would prove that its vision is really not good enough - it does not know enough about the company it invested in, and even does not know that it is a fraudulent company.

If BlackRock left the A-share market because it felt that the fundamentals of the A-share market, the overall environment, and even some sensitive aspects had serious problems, then today, even after the central government introduced these measures, the aspects it was worried about have not changed much. So why did its views change immediately?

If BlackRock left the A-share market not because of fundamentals but simply because it believed that the A-share market needed stimulus measures, but from the information it had, it did not see any hope of stimulus measures being introduced. This proves that the information it had was problematic, especially the so-called "Chinese executives" mentioned by Larry Fink had obvious problems in their judgment of future trends. Such people turned out to be executives of BlackRock, which shows the level of trend judgment of the company's top management.

In short, from all aspects, BlackRock is more like the typical Wall Street "sales" company portrayed in "The Wolf of Wall Street", relying on promoting its financial products, and not necessarily the kind of investment company we imagine - relying on its investment level.

But what’s interesting is that many of these companies are considered “high-end”, “authoritative” and “investment” companies in the eyes of the general public.

Can such a company be a reference for us investors to learn from in terms of investment? Of course not.

But are the so-called "research reports" of such companies valuable? Of course they are.

Through their research reports, we can judge the potential space and possible user groups of an investment market, and thus evaluate the possible upper limit of this market in the future.

I often see readers leave comments like this at the end of articles:

I am a newbie and don’t know much about XX, so I can only believe the opinions of XXX (especially some institutions).

As time goes by and they gain more experience, I believe these readers will one day discover that the XXX (institutions) they believe in are in many cases worse than themselves.

Therefore, investing is not about blindly believing in others or any institutions. Ultimately, you still have to rely on yourself, have your own independent thinking, and have your own investment logic.

In the field that we are familiar with, we can definitely understand it better and more deeply than those institutions. We can lay out our own plans in advance and wait for the institutions to enter to increase the overall space of the market, and then we can reap the benefits.