Recent analysis of mainstream currency investment logic

Preface

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has performed strongly, with the total market value rising to $2.7 trillion, up 3.21% from the previous day. The market trading volume has also increased significantly by 67.79% in the past 24 hours, reaching $208.85 billion. However, market risks cannot be ignored. According to Coinglass's morning data, the total amount of liquidation in the past 24 hours reached $695 million, of which long orders were liquidated for $317 million and short orders were liquidated for $378 million. If you are not careful at this time, the cost of leaving the market may be huge.

Since Trump won the US election, the regulatory ceiling for the crypto industry has been opened. To what extent can this round of market rise, we try to find the answer from the recent performance of mainstream currencies.

A Brief Analysis of Mainstream Currencies

BNB

BNB In the past 7 days, BNB has only increased by 10%. After reaching a high of $643.3, the price began to fluctuate and pull back. BNB has strong practicality in the Binance ecosystem, such as transaction fee deduction, which provides long-term value support for it. Recently, the linkage between the Binance ecosystem and the MEME sector has alleviated the pressure of listing coins to a certain extent, but it has not yet been directly reflected in the coin price. In the long run, Binance needs to further optimize the new issuance model around staking BNB and the pre-market trading market to narrow the gap with user expectations and build a healthier and more sustainable new narrative for BNB.

BTC

With Trump's victory confirmed, the regulatory pressure that has long suppressed the development of the crypto industry has gradually been lifted. There is no bad news in the short term, and BTC has ushered in a new development cycle. Some Wall Street analysts pointed out that Trump is less likely to be constrained before the midterm elections, which means that the crypto industry is expected to maintain a mild upward atmosphere in the next two years. Every time BTC breaks through a new high, the market value support is strengthened, and the risk of a sharp correction caused by regulatory uncertainty is also reduced. However, the operational level still needs to be vigilant against black swan events, such as the economic situation causing the Federal Reserve to change the path of interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and incidental events during the transition of presidential power. After all, the current market is full of greed and sensitivity.

ETH

During the FUD period before the election, ETH experienced a month of volatility, especially on social media, where everyone from investors to crypto researchers was thinking about the direction of Ethereum's development. Compared with Bitcoin's continuous new highs, Ethereum is still far from the high point of the previous cycle, so the main logic of ETH in the near future is oversold repair, and the strong performance of the price increase from $2,600 to $3,200 has also triggered FOMO for some investors. However, around $3,200 is still the locked-in point of the previous cycle. As the "second dragon" asset in the crypto industry, Ethereum's technical strength and degree of decentralization are enough to gradually get rid of the "altcoin" label, especially the huge developer community provides support for its development. Speaking of ETH, Solana has to be mentioned. ETH's short-term logic is oversold repair. In the long run, it is still necessary to pay attention to how it develops an application layer full of commercial innovation vitality, and consider whether to shift the focus of the community to North America to attract more Web2 entrepreneurs to enter Web3. At present, Ethereum's layout in Europe, Asia and North America is relatively balanced.

Solana

Solana's price is still fluctuating at the top of the previous cycle, but this obviously cannot meet the expectations of its supporters. Since the FTX incident, Solana has repaired the correlation with ETH. As an excellent L1, Solana has returned to the peak it should belong to. It is worth mentioning that the current situation of the proliferation of VC coins also exists in the Solana ecosystem, but the community's commercial sensitivity and innovation have masked such problems, and RWA, MEME and DePin tracks have emerged. Ethereum is more about the blurred boundaries of decentralized organizations (resulting in weak value support for governance tokens), and the construction of infrastructure with weak commercial returns consumes a lot of energy and resources, which has not changed significantly from the current point of view. Solana is an Alpha asset worthy of attention in the long term. After BTC stabilizes at a new high, liquidity spillover is expected to perform well.

SUI

SUI has recently broken through new highs with a full circulation market value of US$32 billion, and has increased by more than 67% in the past seven days. The team has the pragmatic spirit and engineering rigor of a large Internet company. Different from other L1s, it focuses on compliance and focuses on the gaming track. The TVL of the ecosystem has increased significantly recently, but we must pay attention to the sustainability of SUI's price trend. The gaming track occasionally performs well in a bear market, and whether it can develop a new narrative in the context of a bull market remains to be seen.

summary

As Bitcoin continues to break new highs and the Federal Reserve releases liquidity, the crypto industry will usher in at least two years of "abundant rain" development. Investors should find an investment method and track that suits them in order to obtain good returns in this cycle. The road is long, but steady progress will lead to success.