Will there be a violent bull market this year?

1 The problem with the stock market is lack of confidence, so can it be revived by stimulus?

Of course, confidence is needed in the stock market.

There are two kinds of confidence: long-term confidence and short-term confidence.

The establishment of long-term confidence requires fundamental institutional guarantees.

I would like to quote what Mr. Buffett said: The reason why he has been full of confidence in the U.S. stock market and U.S. companies for a long time is because he believes that the United States can always adhere to the market economy and the rule of law.

Whether our country has the institutional guarantees of "market economy" and "rule of law" for long-term confidence is a matter of opinion. I cannot judge. So in all my articles on A-shares, I have never said that A-shares will have a long-term bull market like the US stock market.

All the A-share market conditions I mentioned refer to the short term or at most the medium term.

It is entirely possible that short-term and medium-term market conditions are detached from the fundamentals of economic development and the system and are stimulated by external conditions (either from the government or from speculative capital).

If stimulus measures of a certain scale are introduced, short-term confidence can also be stimulated: "Three positive lines change three views" refers to this kind of short-term confidence.

Such examples are always repeated. Not only are they common in the history of A-shares, but they have also occurred in other countries with similar systems to ours (such as Vietnam).

2. What do you think of Aleo’s zero-knowledge proof?

I think I have shared this project in an article before.

However, after reading some reports on zero-knowledge proof recently, I have some new insights into this field.

In general, I am still relatively conservative about the first-layer blockchain. Whether such projects are good or not depends on their core functions.

Specifically for this project, it is essentially still a smart contract platform, but with the added feature of zero-knowledge proof.

On the contrary, I think there is a category of tools, components or middle layers that specialize in handling zero-knowledge proofs, which seem to have a wider range of uses. Such tools, components or middle layers can be better modularized with existing smart contract blockchains, making them more flexible and focused.

I am not involved in this project.

3 Will there be a violent bull market this year?

Readers often leave messages asking whether there will be a bull market this year or next year, and they particularly emphasize whether there will be a "violent" bull market.

I don't know either.

But I suggest that as investors, we’d better not have such ideas and just let everything take its course.

Study hard in the bear market and plan well in the downturn. As for when the bull market will come and what will happen after it comes, just follow the mentality of "do your best and leave the rest to fate".

In addition, from the perspective of metaphysics: the more we expect something, the less likely it is to come. If something really comes to us, it is a blessing from our previous life, and we can only ask ourselves and not others.

What about 4 TON?

The biggest potential for TON is to convert Telegram's vast user base into TON's user base. According to relevant data, Telegram has nearly 200 million daily active users, and it would be a big deal if only 1% of these 200 million users were converted into TON users.

This imagination space is indeed huge.

But I am skeptical of this reasoning.

The reason is simple: among these seemingly vast users, are there any urgent needs or at least 1% of the needs that can only be met by TON?

I can't see it at the moment.

Some readers will say payment.

But if it is payment, blockchain technology is not needed, and traditional mobile Internet (WeChat, Alipay) can be used, and the user experience is better. Why must TON be used in this case?

Apart from payment, the other things that can be thought of are probably entertainment, gambling or speculation.

When it comes to entertainment, current mobile Internet games far surpass blockchain games in terms of user experience. Current blockchain games have not yet developed their own killer scenarios.

I don’t think gambling and speculation are high-frequency and urgent needs of the majority of users.

Therefore, I think the small applications that are currently active on TON are just some experimental applications that are popular in a small range. It is probably difficult for them to convert Telegram users into TON users on a large scale.