The 100,000 yuan test: When will Bitcoin successfully break through?

Prices of assets such as cryptocurrencies, stocks and gold continued to rise on Friday as investors' confidence soared due to expectations of favorable policies following Trump's inauguration.

U.S. stocks stabilized after volatile early trading and closed with strong momentum. As of the close, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.35%, 0.97% and 0.16% respectively.

The price of Bitcoin continued to rise, reaching a high of $99,880 on the day. Bulls were in high spirits and entered the sprint stage to $100,000.

Old altcoins generally rose, with Solana hitting $260 for the first time, a record high, XRP rising 20%, and Cardano (ADA) rising 23.5%.

The meme sector fell, with Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) down 18%, Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) down 17.5%, and Act I: The AI ​​Prophecy (ACT) down 15.5%.

The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.3 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 59.4%.

The six-digit mark represents a “market psychological barrier”

Federico Brokate, head of 21Shares’ U.S. business, told CNBC that the six-figure mark represents a “psychological barrier in the market” and is a price target that investors have been eyeing since the last cryptocurrency bull run.

He also pointed out that the BTC price quickly rose by 3-5% last week when it reached the $90,000 mark and the trading volume was large enough. This situation may happen again when the BTC price reaches $100,000.

Looking back at historical data, BTC hovered between $6,000 and $9,000 in 2017, and soared to around $16,000 after Thanksgiving.

“If this barrier is not completely broken by Thanksgiving, we expect prices to fall 15-20% — a pullback that would test $80,000 support and eliminate high-leverage, low-conviction participants,” Brokate said.

Reaching $100,000 or more

Many analysts believe that the price of Bitcoin is expected to break through the $100,000 mark during the weekend when institutional investors are closed, and the "panic buying" sentiment of retail investors may further push up the market.

Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, said there is no need to panic yet and the market is "still a long way off" from entering the next crypto winter.

“Despite Bitcoin’s election-fueled rally, its 260-day complexity indicator has yet to reach the 1.2 level, suggesting a low risk of a crypto winter,” he said in the report. “Thus, while we should expect a short-term retracement, Bitcoin’s structural uptrend is intact, with the ultimate target above $200,000.”

Analysts say that to understand the value of Bitcoin, it is necessary to compare it with gold. Both assets are considered "non-confiscable" assets, which can provide some protection in the face of inflation, banking system collapse or government expropriation. As global wealth grows, the value of the network effects of gold and Bitcoin will also increase. Dhaval said that "Bitcoin has much more room to rise than gold."

Some analysts use technical analysis tools, such as the Elliott Wave Theory, to predict Bitcoin’s price movements.

According to their analysis, Bitcoin may experience a five-wave upward cycle, with the initial target price of the third wave being around $85,000. If the fifth wave extends, the price may reach $127,000.

“If we do experience an extension of the third/fifth wave, this could take us all the way up to $127,000 (green line) before completion,” John Glover, chief investment officer at Ledn, said in a note. “That’s not a number I’d confirm, but it’s a common target in the case of wave extensions.”

John Glover said he still expects "BTC to follow the orange line in the chart, and if the trend is confirmed, the final fifth wave target will be much higher ($160,000-$180,000). And if it falls to $75,000/$80,000, it should be a suitable area to cover positions."

Market analyst Moustache believes that it is only a matter of hours before Bitcoin hits $100,000, but unlike many analysts who call for profit-taking, he believes that a FOMO rally has the potential to push Bitcoin to $120,000.