The Next Phase of the Bitcoin and Altcoin Bull Run

Over the past two years, the crypto industry has entered a period that can be called the "consolidation phase". During this period, the industry has focused more on optimization rather than "new innovations from scratch". This consolidation and optimization is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
1) Infrastructure
2) Application scenarios
3) Top winner

01 Optimization and integration trends of the crypto industry in 2024

1) Optimization: Infrastructure in 2024

The maturity of infrastructure means that encryption technology is no longer a bottleneck for the development of the industry. This achievement is due to the optimization of a large number of technologies rather than a disruptive new architecture. These optimizations may have made the encryption industry ready for the "bull market" for the first time, including:

More block space;

The development tool chain is becoming increasingly complete;

User transaction fees are almost zero or even completely waived;

The complexity of using the wallet is significantly reduced;

The user experience of on - chain applications is gradually comparable to that of Web2 consumer products.

Currently, this infrastructure abstraction, performance improvement, and reliability enhancement are only in their 12th to 18th month. For example, the development of Ethereum L2, the stability improvement of Solana, and the application of wallet abstraction technology in actual production environments have developed, but have not yet reached the optimal level.

2) Integration: Application scenarios and top winners in 2024

Two key application scenarios have gradually matured: speculation and stablecoins. These two scenarios run through almost the entire development process of the crypto industry:

Bitcoin (2009) is the earliest speculative asset in the crypto industry.

Stablecoin is one of the earliest token applications (USDT started in 2014).

Today, these two scenarios have reached a new peak due to the optimization of infrastructure.

Peak Speculation : Memecoins

Memecoins are the epitome of speculation, and now they are extremely easy and cheap to create and trade.

Seamless integration of stablecoins

Tools like Bridge make issuing and trading stablecoins more efficient than ever before.

3) The strong-get-stronger effect of the top winners

As the industry develops, past top winners are further consolidating their positions and their advantages continue to expand. These winners include:

Public chains: Solana and Ethereum;

Wallet : Phantom

· DEX: Uniswap and Raydium.

These platforms have benefited greatly from the growth of stablecoins and speculation, and are able to quickly adapt to market hot spots and speculative games like Memecoins or NFTs.

02The next stage of the crypto industry

As the infrastructure bottleneck gradually fades, the other two major bottlenecks facing the industry are gradually emerging. These two bottlenecks have largely driven the current integration and optimization stage and hindered the industry's further innovation breakthroughs from "zero to one".

1) Bottleneck 1: Infrastructure issues

Infrastructure bottlenecks are being gradually eliminated. Technical optimization rather than breakthrough architectural innovation has brought significant progress to the industry. Today, blockchain has sufficient available block space, tools are gradually maturing, transaction fees are close to zero, wallets are becoming easier to use, and some applications on the chain can rival the consumer experience of Web2.

2) Bottleneck 2: Hostile and uncertain regulatory environment

The second bottleneck to be solved is the unfriendly and uncertain regulatory environment. However, this problem now seems to be gradually alleviated. Trump's coming to power has given the crypto industry hope that it will usher in clearer regulatory rules in the United States, eliminate bad projects, and help positive participants in the industry grow and develop.

As infrastructure performance improves and the regulatory environment becomes clearer, the industry is about to break through the third bottleneck - the talent issue.

3) Bottleneck 3: Talent shortage

Since 2022, the number of new talents entering the crypto industry has been at a bottleneck. This is understandable, as negative news and an uncertain regulatory environment pose huge personal risks to founders. However, the lack of new talent has directly led to the stagnation of innovation in the industry from scratch.

I believe this trend will begin to reverse next year, through two steps:

A. Leaders in the consolidation phase will continue to expand their advantages. The success of these leading projects may exceed everyone's expectations. For example, Polymarket has proved this in this election cycle, and there will be more similar cases in the future. As on-chain applications gradually gain mainstream acceptance (both consumers and institutions), we will see:

Startups will go public one after another;

More projects will issue tokens;

Society ’s expectations of the impact of the crypto industry will be readjusted.

This is the first step to encourage a new generation of developers to gain a deeper understanding of the crypto industry. Only by attracting more new blood can the industry usher in the next round of real breakthroughs.

B. A new generation of entrepreneurs will redefine the industry based on first principles. These new entrepreneurs will no longer be limited by traditional infrastructure and outdated concepts. They will conduct innovative experiments based on clear rules and around the core of "ownership" to bring new products and experiences to users.

03Future Outlook: Finding Stability through Verification

Although the crypto industry is still full of volatility, with the arrival of new rules, new talents and new ideas, we hope that in the next five years, we will know clearly whether the crypto industry can go beyond speculation and stablecoins and bring more real value.

Ownership will likely become a core element of new products and networks that will grow faster by building deep connections with users through economic incentives. Verification through breakthrough applications will be an important way to reduce long-term volatility.

The crypto market in 2025 is still worth looking forward to. As Bitcoin continues to break new highs, which track will be the first to explode and take over the bull market in 2025?