What is the secret behind the surge in XRP?

The recent XRP surge reveals a complex interaction between technicals, market structure, and regional dynamics.

Market Background

On November 10, XRP broke out of about $0.55, decisively breaking through the 100-week, 200-week, and 350-week moving averages.

Perpetual contract CVD: Decreased.

Open interest: Increasing.

At the same time, Upbit's rankings in the App Store and Play Store began to rise. The interweaving of this series of factors suggests that market activities are brewing.

November 12: Turning point

Upbit took the top spot in the Play Store rankings, a particularly important signal given the structure of South Korea’s user base – mainly older investors between the ages of 50 and 60 who mainly use Android devices, with Samsung dominating.

As demand surged, XRP broke through ₩1,000 KRW (about $0.71). Arbitrageurs quickly adjusted the market imbalance, resulting in a large number of short positions being closed.

Supply vacuum

In previous cycles, Jed McCaleb’s continued selling has limited XRP’s upward momentum. However, this time he has no more coins to sell.

Structural breakthrough

Only Bitstamp and Upbit have historical charts dating back to 2017, and these charts show a diagonal breakout that has lasted for 6 years, while Upbit’s overwhelming dominance in spot trading volume has become a sign of South Korea’s investment enthusiasm.

Characteristics of the group in need

According to a recent report by Hankyung News, older Korean investors are playing an increasingly prominent role in the crypto market:

Since 2021, crypto accounts held by people over 60 have increased by 30% (+188,000 new accounts).

Accounts for people aged 50 and over increased by 22.5% (+356,000 accounts).

As of September 2024, individuals aged 60 and over hold a total of $4.8 billion in crypto assets.

This demographic shift suggests that older investors, particularly in South Korea, play a key role in driving demand for XRP.

Article link: Hankyung Article

The bigger picture

While South Korea’s trading volume is a major factor, it is not the only driving force. Other exchanges, such as Coinbase and Robinhood, have also contributed to XRP’s surge. As of now, XRP’s spot trading volume has exceeded $6.6 billion.

This is not just an ordinary rise. It is a combination of the following factors:

1. Key technological breakthroughs.

2. Renewed attention from retail investors, especially Korean investors. (Subsequently boosted by the SEC lawsuit dismissal and the release of WisdomTree’s S-1 filing)

3. Supply pressure from major historical sellers such as Jed McCaleb is absent.

When causality and multiple factors collide, the results are often extraordinary.