BTC breaks through $100,000, the alt season has arrived

BTC broke through the 100,000 mark, the altcoin sector of the crypto market rose in tandem, and the overall market sentiment was high.

Crypto Market Summary

1. BTC broke through the $100,000 mark on December 5, rising to a high of $103,900, and then fluctuated downward. However, it is highly likely that it will not stay in this range for too long and will continue to break upward;

2. The FMG Index shows that the popularity of the DePIN sector has risen again. This year, DePIN projects that are strongly related to AI have increased by 100%-700%;

3. The further decline in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the improvement in other indices all show that the U.S. economy is on a positive trend and inflationary pressure has further eased, which is likely to be a positive response to the interest rate cut;

4. Paul Atkins was appointed as the new SEC chairman, which will benefit DeFi, RWA, DePIN & AI, and Meme sectors.

1. Market Overview

1.1 FutureMoney Group DePIN Index

The FutureMoney Group DePIN Index is a high-quality DePIN portfolio token index constructed by FutureMoney, which selects the 24 most representative DePIN projects. Compared with the last report, the Nav value continued to rise, from 9.97 to 15.23. The Spot Price also continued to rise, rising to $67.85. This is because the large-cap, high-priced projects represented by TAO in the Index began to rise across the board. Especially for tokens such as Render and LPT, we can clearly see that after two months of shock, they began to make up for the large-scale rise. This is not only a symptom of the arrival of the cottage season, but also a signal of the rotation of the DePIN sector.

1.2 Crypto Market Data

In the past November, we can see that the overall market value of cryptocurrencies has been on an upward trend, rising from the previous 2.45 trillion to 3.69 trillion. In terms of market share, BTC continued to rise after a brief decline in November, and its current dominance rate is above 55%. This is because other ecological tokens such as ETH began to catch up during the same period, while BTC still fluctuated below $100,000 until it broke through $100,000 on December 5, and BTC's dominance rate began to rise.

Observing the trend of Coinglass contract holdings, the open positions of BTC contracts on the entire network increased to a certain extent in November, from the previous highest of US$58.5 billion to the current US$65 billion. Among them, the 24-hour long-short ratio shows that in November, most users were bullish on BTC, but after breaking through US$100,000, sentiment turned bearish.

At present, the entire BTC trend is still in the Fomo stage. In the past 15 days, the net inflow of BTC spot was about 4 billion US dollars, which fully demonstrates that off-market funds are still optimistic about BTC, and the peak of this round of BTC bull market has not yet arrived.

1.3 CPI and other data and market reactions to judge the market

1. Macro level: In terms of unemployment rate, the United States updated new data on November 23, and the number of initial unemployment claims decreased from 221,000 on November 9 to 217,000. The market generally believes that under the economic stimulus policies and employment promotion plans advocated by the Trump administration, the unemployment rate is likely to fall further in the future. The CPI data for November 2024 showed that the annualized CPI growth rate in the United States was 3.5%, a slight decline from 3.6% in the previous month, indicating that inflationary pressure has eased. The core CPI annual growth rate in November 2024 was 4.1%, a decline from 4.3% in the previous month. This further verifies the slowdown in the inflation trend in the United States. The cryptocurrency and digital asset markets may also usher in more positive stimulus with the policy support of the Trump administration, promoting further development in related fields.

2. Cryptocurrency: BTC broke through the $100,000 mark on December 5, completing the test of a new high. This also means that BTC has officially entered the six-digit price range. However, the current market bearish sentiment is high, and the possibility of falling back to $90,000 cannot be ruled out.

3. Sectors worth investing in: Paul Atkins becoming the new chairman of the SEC will be beneficial to the popularity of the sector. Due to Atkins' background and views on cryptocurrencies, there is a high probability that DeFi, which involves crypto finance, RWA, which couples real assets with crypto assets, DePIN, and AI, which involve broader real-life scenarios, will be promoted in the future. In addition, due to the obvious entry of large funds from outside the market in the past two rounds of bull markets, this round of bull market may be the first time in the history of cryptocurrencies that users have embraced Meme on a large scale. Many people realize that from the perspective of life-changing returns, they have missed the best opportunities for BTC and ETH, so they can only significantly increase their risk appetite. This is also the reason why Meme will explode in this round, and Meme deserves special attention.

2. Hot Market News

2.1 Bitcoin will not stay near $100,000 for too long and will seek further growth

On December 5, Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 for the first time, but analysts said it would not stay at this price for long, as breaking through the psychological price barrier is expected to attract more attention and drive prices further up. Nick Forster, founder and cryptocurrency analyst at Derive, said Bitcoin would not see much consolidation around $100,000. After hitting an all-time high of $73,679 in March, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $53,000 and $72,000 for the next seven months.

2.2 Trump administration appoints Paul Atkins as SEC chairman

Trump's side finally confirmed the nomination of Paul Atkins as the new chairman of the SEC and is waiting for his response. Coinbase CEO and other bigwigs expressed their support, believing that Atkins is the best candidate. The token RSR of the closely related stablecoin protocol Reserve Protocol rose by more than 110% in 7 days.

2.3 The sudden coup in the South Korean government caused the local cryptocurrency trading volume in South Korea to exceed US$34 billion

South Korea's political landscape is in turmoil, and another ugly president is about to step down. The incident happened suddenly and caused panic among the Korean people. In the past 24 hours, the trading volume of local spot cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea exceeded 34 billion US dollars, setting a record high. And further boosted the price of TRX tokens, because the trading restrictions of Upbit, the largest exchange in South Korea, may prompt traders to find alternative solutions for asset transfers, thereby increasing TRX's trading volume. TRX rose by more than 66% in 24 hours.

III. Regulatory Environment

More and more lawmakers in the U.S. Congress have begun calling for limiting the SEC's regulatory power in these areas. At a hearing attended by crypto industry leaders and technical experts, lawmakers criticized the SEC for excessive regulation, which highlighted concerns about the SEC's lack of regulatory transparency and adaptability. Attorneys general of 18 U.S. states have filed a lawsuit accusing the SEC of overstepping its authority and "persecuting" the crypto industry; in addition, a U.S. court ruled that the SEC's sanctions on Tornado Cash were overstepping its authority.

There is a big regulatory divide between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the field of cryptocurrency and Web3, the SEC tends to consider most crypto assets as securities, while the CFTC advocates that these assets be considered commodities. With the rapid development of Web3, more and more people are calling for the transfer of regulatory power from the SEC to the CFTC, especially when it comes to DEX and Dapp. The struggle for regulatory power has led to further scrutiny and challenges to the SEC leadership and its regulatory strategy.