Has Bitcoin fallen below 80,000?

Today, Bitcoin fell below $80,000, and the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index also reached 10 (extreme fear) yesterday. This is the first time in three months that investors have seen Bitcoin begin with 7.

The market sentiment has been extremely fearful for four days. In less than a week, Bitcoin has fallen from 96,000 to around 78,000. It has also fallen 28% from its historical high. Ethereum has also fallen 25% in less than a week.

It is not just the cryptocurrency market that is falling. Global stock markets are generally falling today. I believe the core reason for this decline is that Trump further imposed tariffs, which led to further pessimism about macroeconomic expectations. As investors' psychological defenses are further broken, the crypto market has also ushered in a continuous decline.

Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic and good news has failed

There are many reasons for this decline, but the main reason is some negative factors at the macroeconomic level, and Trump's further strong stance on tariff policy has basically defeated market sentiment and caused a large number of investors to sell in panic.

Trump said on February 27 that he would impose a 10% tariff on imports from China starting March 4. The Trump administration had already imposed a 10% tariff on China on February 4, bringing the total tariff to 20%. The proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were originally scheduled to take effect on March 4, will also take effect as scheduled.

It is precisely because of Trump's toughness on the issue of tariffs and extreme instability that the smooth and normal development of global trade has been greatly threatened. The trade war will greatly drag down the development of the global economy. After Trump's tariff remarks were released, global stock markets generally performed poorly. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which had fallen for four consecutive trading days, only closed slightly higher. In the European stock market, the automobile sector was obviously hit, falling by about 4%, as investors worried that the economies of major EU economies, especially Germany and France, would suffer huge losses due to the change in US tariff policies. Emerging markets in Asia were also hit hard, with Thailand's benchmark stock index falling as much as 2.4%, a cumulative decline of more than 20% from its high in October. Most A-share stocks were also in a downtrend, and the so-called "rising in the east and falling in the west" law also failed. Gold, a safe-haven asset, also fell slightly.

The current market sentiment is basically very bad. On the 27th, Nvidia's financial report actually handed in a pretty good answer sheet. Such good news did not cause any encouraging response from either the crypto market or the US stock market. This also shows that the current market sentiment is already very pessimistic, and all data will be interpreted in a negative direction. It also indicates that any disturbance in the market will bring about a new round of decline.

On the evening of the 28th, the United States will release PCE data. Under the current market sentiment, even if the PCE data is better than expected, it will not bring too positive a rebound in the price of the currency.

Is this the end? Where will the market go next ?

An important basis for measuring where the bottom is is the shutdown price of Bitcoin. At present, the shutdown price of the Antminer S21 series and S19 series, which are the most mainstream Bitcoin mining machines, is around 30,000 US dollars, while the latter is around 50,000 US dollars. According to the data from F2Pool, although the current price of Bitcoin has reached the shutdown price of most mining machines, there is still a lot of room for decline from the shutdown price of the latest mainstream mining machines.

From the perspective of market panic, the market has been in a state of extreme fear for four consecutive days. Most people in the market are bearish. Under such market sentiment, now is definitely not the best time to sell chips.

From a technical perspective, we can pay attention to EMA200 (200-day exponential moving average on the candlestick chart), which is often regarded as an important long-term trend indicator. When the price is above EMA200, it may be regarded as a long-term upward trend; when the price is below EMA200, it may be regarded as a long-term downward trend. The price of Bitcoin corresponding to this line is 73,000 US dollars. From a technical perspective, when Bitcoin effectively falls below 73,000 US dollars, it can be declared that Bitcoin has entered a bear market.

At present, the macroeconomic situation is undoubtedly the biggest uncertainty factor affecting the price of cryptocurrencies. Although the United States has been continuously promoting various favorable factors for the development of crypto compliance, it is precisely because of Trump's wielding of the tariff stick that investors are generally pessimistic about macroeconomic expectations. However, it is worth noting that institutions generally maintain their expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. Only by releasing water can liquidity be injected into the market. And the market really needs to wait until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before it can really improve.

What investors are most concerned about right now is where the price of Bitcoin will fall. The bottom is hard to predict, the market is changing rapidly, and what can be controlled is investment operations. For investors, after Bitcoin falls below $73,000, they can buy the bottom in batches or make fixed investments, and then wait for the next round of rising market to sell in batches.