A brief analysis of the US Bitcoin strategic reserve: not lower than expected, but has a great impact in the long run

TLNR:

1. The source of the US strategic reserves is the confiscated Bitcoins. The market has been prepared for this and it is not lower than expected.

2. Considering that the United States is still enforcing the law, in the future, holding Bitcoin will mean receiving dividends from the United States' fight against crypto crimes in disguise.

3. In the past 10 years, the United States has sold more than 200,000 bitcoins in total. Stopping the sale is equivalent to soft lock, which is more powerful than expected.

4. The worst soft lock period is 4 years, and if everything goes well it could be 12 years.

5. Strategic reserves will have a great positive impact on other countries, which will gradually begin to follow suit.

The market should be prepared in advance that the United States will use the confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. After all, this is what Trump promised in Bitcoin 2024.

Secondly, simply not buying is already a strong support. According to Grok3's statistics, from 2014 to last year, the cumulative amount of bitcoins dumped by the United States has exceeded 200,000, which is actually hidden selling pressure.

As strong as MicroStrategy is, after so many years of accumulation, it can only absorb one-third of the Bitcoin selling pressure from US law enforcement.

Now these selling pressures will not flow into the market for at least 4 years. If Vance successfully takes over, it will be a hard lock-up for 12 years.

Although it is not as immediate as the United States buying 1 million bitcoins, you have to know that the United States may continue to enforce the law in the future, and each confiscated bitcoin will go into this reserve.

So over time, this amounts to a slow buyback.

As long as you are not the evil doer, and I believe 99% of people are not, if you hold Bitcoin, you are sharing the dividends of the United States' fight against crypto crimes.

Because every time you crack down on crypto crime, the proportion of Bitcoin in your hands in the entire network is slowly increasing.

In addition, as the amount of Bitcoin in this strategic reserve continues to increase, we all know that the position determines the mind, and the United States will give more and more preference to Bitcoin.

At the same time, this has a decisive influence on the attitudes of other small countries. So in the next 1-2 years, we may see a country pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve every once in a while, and it has a Fomo effect, because the later the reserve is established, the higher the cost may be.

I asked Grok3 to sort it out. These countries have started preparing quickly or slowly. With the leading effect of the United States, these countries will advance much faster.

Keep your faith and be calm

TLNR:

1. The source of the US strategic reserves is the confiscated Bitcoins. The market has been prepared for this and it is not lower than expected.

2. Considering that the United States is still enforcing the law, in the future, holding Bitcoin will mean receiving dividends from the United States' fight against crypto crimes in disguise.

3. In the past 10 years, the United States has sold more than 200,000 bitcoins in total. Stopping the sale is equivalent to soft lock, which is more powerful than expected.

4. The worst soft lock period is 4 years, and if everything goes well it could be 12 years.

5. Strategic reserves will have a great positive impact on other countries, which will gradually begin to follow suit.

The market should be prepared in advance that the United States will use the confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. After all, this is what Trump promised in Bitcoin 2024.

Secondly, simply not buying is already a strong support. According to Grok3's statistics, from 2014 to last year, the cumulative amount of bitcoins dumped by the United States has exceeded 200,000, which is actually hidden selling pressure.

As strong as MicroStrategy is, after so many years of accumulation, it can only absorb one-third of the Bitcoin selling pressure from US law enforcement.

Now these selling pressures will not flow into the market for at least 4 years. If Vance successfully takes over, it will be a hard lock-up for 12 years.

Although it is not as immediate as the United States buying 1 million bitcoins, you have to know that the United States may continue to enforce the law in the future, and each confiscated bitcoin will go into this reserve.

So over time, this amounts to a slow buyback.

As long as you are not the evil doer, and I believe 99% of people are not, if you hold Bitcoin, you are sharing the dividends of the United States' fight against crypto crimes.

Because every time you crack down on crypto crime, the proportion of Bitcoin in your hands in the entire network is slowly increasing.

In addition, as the amount of Bitcoin in this strategic reserve continues to increase, we all know that the position determines the mind, and the United States will give more and more preference to Bitcoin.

At the same time, this has a decisive influence on the attitudes of other small countries. So in the next 1-2 years, we may see a country pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve every once in a while, and it has a Fomo effect, because the later the reserve is established, the higher the cost may be.

I asked Grok3 to sort it out. These countries have started preparing quickly or slowly. With the leading effect of the United States, these countries will advance much faster.

Keep your faith and be calm