Industry executives warn: Bitcoin bear market has begun

Cryptocurrencies enjoyed an epic rally around the time U.S. President Donald Trump took office, but that trend has paused in recent weeks, with Bitcoin prices falling from an all-time high of $109,000 to around $83,000 currently.

Recently, some industry insiders have expressed concerns that the bull run of Bitcoin has reversed. Ki Young Ju, founder of cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant, is one of the crypto executives who holds a pessimistic view.

He posted on X that the Bitcoin bull market has lost momentum due to declining market liquidity, and prices are expected to continue to fall or go sideways in the next 6 to 12 months.

He pointed out that there is no new capital inflow on the chain, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF has also seen outflows for three consecutive weeks, and even with huge trading volumes, Bitcoin prices have barely moved in recent days. If there is no new liquidity to offset the massive sell-off, this will be a clear bearish signal.

CryptoQuant also pointed out in its latest report that Bitcoin may return to the $63,000 mark, and key indicators show that Bitcoin's current trend is consistent with a deeper adjustment or the beginning of a bear market.

Several crypto industry analysts have recently warned that continued weakness in the U.S. stock market could exacerbate bearish pressure on the cryptocurrency market amid economic uncertainty and global tensions.

Well-known crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also claimed that the historical correlation between Bitcoin and Fed policy shows that the token may repeat the decline in 2019. In 2019, the Fed continued to carry out quantitative tightening, which is very similar to the trend of the current cycle.

He added that the Atlanta Fed recently released a forecast of negative U.S. GDP in the first quarter. If this expectation is combined with concerns about inflation, tariffs, etc., it is not difficult to find that Bitcoin's bull market momentum has disappeared.

CryptoQuant analysts set Bitcoin's bull support level at $75,000 to $78,000. Polymarket bettors believe that there is a 51% probability that Bitcoin will end this week between $81,000 and $87,000, and a 31% probability of reaching $75,000 by the end of the month.

Others have analyzed that historically, a Bitcoin bull market usually lasts 742 to 1,065 days, or about 2 to 3 years. In contrast, a bear market lasts 364 to 413 days, or about a year. Due to the rapid growth of Bitcoin's market value, each bull market cycle is weaker than the previous one.

In addition, the price of Bitcoin generally plummets by 77% to 86% after a bull market turns into a bear market. Considering this recurring trend, some people believe that the end point of this round of Bitcoin adjustment will be around US$40,000.